superforecasting means the skill of making highly accurate predictions. Lexicurio rates it Rare gem — a strength score of 82 out of 100.
Why “superforecasting” is a great word
SUPERFORECASTING — [Noun] The skill or practice of making highly accurate, evidence-based predictions, often about geopolitical or economic events. From the English prefix super- ("above, beyond, to an exceeding degree") + forecasting ("the process of making predictions"). The term was popularized and likely coined in the title of the 2015 book 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Unlike prophecy (which implies mystical revelation) or speculation (which suggests high-risk conjecture), superforecasting is a secular discipline of calibrated, probabilistic thinking. It is the meticulous aggregation of base rates, the constant Bayesian updating of a spreadsheet, and the quiet revision of a probability estimate from 65% to 68%—a defiantly modest attempt to impose temporary, rational order on a future determined to remain opaque.
Etymology
From super + forecasting.
noun
- The skill of making highly accurate predictions.