superforecaster

Etymology

From super + forecaster.

superforecaster means one who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy. Lexicurio rates it Rare gem — a strength score of 82 out of 100.

Why this word is great

SUPERFORECASTER — [Noun] One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy. From the English prefix super- ("above, beyond") + forecaster ("one who predicts"). Unlike a pundit, who opines with authoritative confidence insulated from a measurable scorecard, or a futurist, who paints grand, speculative canvases of distant tomorrows, the superforecaster is defined by the quiet, granular discipline of calibrated probability and continuous Bayesian updating. It is the meticulous revision of a spreadsheet as new data trickles in, the patient adjustment of a likelihood from 65% to 72% after reading an obscure report, and the monastic discipline of a quantified scorecard tracking every missed call—a humble, plodding testament not to prophetic vision, but to the grinding work of thinking in shades of grey.

noun

One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy.“On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.”